Probabilistic approach to modeling lava flow inundation: a lava flow hazard assessment for a nuclear facility in Armenia

Table 3 Lava flow simulation input parameters

Parameter	Range	Notes
ANPP site boundary		Boundaries used in analysis
East (km)	428.2
West (km)	426.0
North (km)	4449.0
South (km)	4447.0
Lava thickness (m)	4-15	Truncated normal distribution;
		Mean = 7.0 m
		Standard Dev. = 3.0 m
Lava flow volume (m³)	10⁶-10⁹	Truncated normal distribution;
		(log)Mean = 7.2
		(log)Standard Dev. = 0.5
Iteration volume	10⁵	Lava volume added at source
		vent in each iteration
Number of simulations	10 000

Input parameters used in the Monte Carlo simulation of lava flow inundation of the ANPP site by flows originating on or near the Shamiram Plateau. Flow thickness and volume are based on observed thicknesses and volumes of lava flows located on and surrounding the Shamiram Plateau. A probability distribution is assigned to each of these two parameters based on the binned distribution of measured observations (Figure 5).

ISSN: 2191-5040