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Table 1 Elicitation results for seismological parameters

From: Operational eruption forecasting at high-risk volcanoes: the case of Campi Flegrei, Naples

Parameter

inertia

units

ELICIT. I

ELICIT. II

ELICIT. III

ELICIT. IV

ELICIT. V

      

(on line)

(on line)

Node 1

       

# seismic events

(∗)

ev/day

> 1-85

-

-

> 10-20

-

# VT (M >0.8)

(∗)

ev/day

-

> 2-15[mag]

> 15-85[mag 3]

> 2-5[mag 13]

> 5-15

Largest Magnitude

last month

-

> 1.7-3.3

> 2-3[co]

> 2-3

> 3-4[p 20]

-

# LP

(∗)

ev/month

> 0

> 2-10

> 1-10

canceled

canceled

# LP/VLP/ULP

(∗)

ev/month

-

-

-

> 1-10[p 20]

> 2-10

Node 2

       

# seismic events

(∗)

ev/day

> 1-100 (1)

-

> 20-110 (1)

-

-

# VT (M >1.3)

(∗)

ev/day

-

> 15-70 (1)[mag]

-

> 20 (1)[p 27]

-

# deep VT (>3.5 km, M >0.8)

(∗)

ev/day

-

-

-

> 1-4 (1)[mag 3]

> 2-20 (1)[p 90]

Largest Magnitude

last month

-

> 2.6-4.0 (1)

> 3.6-4.5 (1)

> 3.3-4.3 (1)

> 4 (1)[p 20]

-

# LP

(∗)

ev/month

> 0-10 (1)

> 1-30 (1)

> 20-40 (1)

-

-

# deep LP (>2.0 km)

(∗)

ev/month

-

-

> 1-7 (2)[dep 30]

> 2-8 (2)[dep 35]

> 3-20 (1)[p 50]

# VLP/ULP

(∗)

ev/month

-

> 0 (2)[ulp]

> 2-6 (2)

> 1-2 (2)[p 07]

> 1-5 (1)

# deep VLP/ULP (>3.5 km)

(∗)

ev/month

-

-

-

> 1-5 (2)[p 73]

-

Presence of tremor

last month

-

-

-

-

YES/NO (1)[red]

YES/NO (1)

Presence of deep tremor (>3.5 km)

last month

-

-

-

-

YES/NO (1)

YES/NO (1)

Maximum depth (>6 events)

-

km

> 6 (1)[min]

> 4-8 (1)[min]

> 4-6 (1)

canceled

canceled

Presence of CLVD

-

-

YES/NO (1)

YES/NO (1)

canceled

canceled

canceled

Node 3

       

# seismic events

(∗)

ev/day

> 50-240 (1)

-

-

-

-

# VT (M >1.3)

(∗)

ev/day

-

-

-

> 50-200 (2)[p 87]

-

Acceleration in # seismic events

last week

-

YES/NO (1)

YES/NO (2)

YES/NO (1)

YES/NO (1)

YES/NO (1)

Acceleration in RSAM

last week

-

-

-

-

YES/NO (1)[p 93]

YES/NO (1)[p 70]

Presence of tremor

last month

-

YES/NO (1)

YES/NO (1)

YES/NO (2)

YES/NO (2)[p 53]

YES/NO (1)

Upward migration

-

-

YES/NO (1)

canceled

canceled

canceled

canceled

Hypocenter dispersion (depth range)

last week

km

-

YES/NO (1)[qual]

YES/NO (1)[qual]

> 1-3 (1)[p 53]

> 1-3 (1)[p 30]

(10th - 90th perc.)

       
  1. NOTES:
  2. (∗): number of observed events divided by the number of days from the observation. This choice makes the inertia proportional to the registered number of events (and the total energy emitted), that is, the higher the number of events, the longer the inertia.
  3. [ co ]: parameter added for coherence among nodes.
  4. [ depxx ]: the threshold distinguishing between deep and shallow events is x.x Km.
  5. [ mag ]: completeness magnitude not yet defined.
  6. [ mag13 ]: completeness magnitude set to 1.3.
  7. [ mag3 ]: completeness magnitude set to 3.0.
  8. [ min ]: minimum number of events not yet defined.
  9. [ pnn ]: parameter partially accepted, i.e., with probability of acceptance (p α ) equal to 0.nn.
  10. [ qual ]: the parameter is qualitatively defined (YES/NO).
  11. [ red ]: redundant parameter.
  12. [ ulp ]: ULP not yet included.
  13. Legend: The analytic elicitation results for seismological parameters are reported. For fuzzy parameters, lower (T1) and upper (T2) threshold are reported, with the symbolism “T1-T2 (weight)”. For Boolean parameters YES/NO is reported, with the symbolism “YES/NO (weight)”. At node 1, weights are not present, since they are not required by the model. The symbol # stands for “The number of”, while other symbols are defined in section List of Abbreviation. Further specifications, when necessary, are reported in NOTES.
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Journal of Applied Volcanology

ISSN: 2191-5040

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