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Table 2 Elicitation results for geodesy parameters

From: Operational eruption forecasting at high-risk volcanoes: the case of Campi Flegrei, Naples

Parameter inertia units ELICIT. I ELICIT. II ELICIT. III ELICIT. IV ELICIT. V
       (on line) (on line)
Node 1        
Uplift cum. last 3 months cm > 1-20[ch] > 2-5[ch] > 2-5[ch] > 2-5[ch] > 2-6
Uplift rate last 3 months cm/month > 1-50 > 2-10 > 2-7 > 1.2-2 > 0.7-1.3
New fractures last 3 months - - - - - YES/NO (1)[p 70]
Positive gravimetric change last 3 months μ Gal > 36-180 > 40-50 - - -
Absolute gravimetric change last 3 months μ Gal - - > 20-40 > 30-50 -
Node 2        
Uplift cum. last 3 months cm > 1-100 (1)[ch] - - - > 5-15 (1)
Uplift rate last 3 months cm/month - > 10-30 > 35-135 (1) > 5-20 (2)[p 33] -
Macroscopic variation on the last 3 months - - YES/NO (1) YES/NO (1) YES/NO (1) YES/NO (1)
deformation pattern (tens of m)        
New fractures last 3 months - - - - - YES/NO (1))[p 20]
Absolute gravimetric change last 3 months μ Gal - > 20-100 (1) - > 40-60 (1) -
Positive gravimetric change last 3 months μ Gal > 100-270 (1) - - - -
Node 3        
Uplift cum. last 3 months cm > 50-100 (1)[ch] - - - -
Uplift rate last 3 months cm/day - > 5-10 > 8-45 - -
Acceleration in uplift - - YES/NO (1) YES/NO (2) canceled canceled canceled
Macroscopic variation on the last week - YES/NO (1) - - YES/NO (1)[p 40] YES/NO (1)
deformation pattern (tens of m)        
Migration of incremental last week - - - - - YES/NO (1)[p 70]
maximum (m)        
New fractures last 3 months - YES/NO (1) YES/NO (1) YES/NO (1) YES/NO (1) YES/NO (1))[p 40]
  1. NOTES:
  2. [ ch ]: from change of sign of deformation.
  3. [ pnn ]: parameter partially accepted, i.e., with probability of acceptance (p α ) equal to 0.nn.
  4. Legend: The analytic elicitation results for geodesy parameters are reported. The same symbols of Table 1 are used.