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Table 2 Elicitation results for geodesy parameters

From: Operational eruption forecasting at high-risk volcanoes: the case of Campi Flegrei, Naples

Parameter

inertia

units

ELICIT. I

ELICIT. II

ELICIT. III

ELICIT. IV

ELICIT. V

      

(on line)

(on line)

Node 1

       

Uplift

cum. last 3 months

cm

> 1-20[ch]

> 2-5[ch]

> 2-5[ch]

> 2-5[ch]

> 2-6

Uplift rate

last 3 months

cm/month

> 1-50

> 2-10

> 2-7

> 1.2-2

> 0.7-1.3

New fractures

last 3 months

-

-

-

-

-

YES/NO (1)[p 70]

Positive gravimetric change

last 3 months

μ Gal

> 36-180

> 40-50

-

-

-

Absolute gravimetric change

last 3 months

μ Gal

-

-

> 20-40

> 30-50

-

Node 2

       

Uplift

cum. last 3 months

cm

> 1-100 (1)[ch]

-

-

-

> 5-15 (1)

Uplift rate

last 3 months

cm/month

-

> 10-30

> 35-135 (1)

> 5-20 (2)[p 33]

-

Macroscopic variation on the

last 3 months

-

-

YES/NO (1)

YES/NO (1)

YES/NO (1)

YES/NO (1)

deformation pattern (tens of m)

       

New fractures

last 3 months

-

-

-

-

-

YES/NO (1))[p 20]

Absolute gravimetric change

last 3 months

μ Gal

-

> 20-100 (1)

-

> 40-60 (1)

-

Positive gravimetric change

last 3 months

μ Gal

> 100-270 (1)

-

-

-

-

Node 3

       

Uplift

cum. last 3 months

cm

> 50-100 (1)[ch]

-

-

-

-

Uplift rate

last 3 months

cm/day

-

> 5-10

> 8-45

-

-

Acceleration in uplift

-

-

YES/NO (1)

YES/NO (2)

canceled

canceled

canceled

Macroscopic variation on the

last week

-

YES/NO (1)

-

-

YES/NO (1)[p 40]

YES/NO (1)

deformation pattern (tens of m)

       

Migration of incremental

last week

-

-

-

-

-

YES/NO (1)[p 70]

maximum (m)

       

New fractures

last 3 months

-

YES/NO (1)

YES/NO (1)

YES/NO (1)

YES/NO (1)

YES/NO (1))[p 40]

  1. NOTES:
  2. [ ch ]: from change of sign of deformation.
  3. [ pnn ]: parameter partially accepted, i.e., with probability of acceptance (p α ) equal to 0.nn.
  4. Legend: The analytic elicitation results for geodesy parameters are reported. The same symbols of Table 1 are used.