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Table 3 results for geochemistry and thermal parameters

From: Operational eruption forecasting at high-risk volcanoes: the case of Campi Flegrei, Naples

Parameter inertia units ELICIT. I ELICIT. II ELICIT. III ELICIT. IV ELICIT. V
       (on line) (on line)
Node 1        
Degassing structure extension or increase in flux last month - > 1.8-2.2[pgf] - YES/NO - YES/NO[p 70]
Change in composition of gases last month - YES/NO YES/NO[co] YES/NO - -
CO2/H2O ratio last month - > 0.20 > 0.20-0.25 - cancelled cancelled
Presence of acid gases (HF, HCl, SO2) last week - - - - YES/NO[p 27] YES/NO[p 10]
Thermal anomaly - - - - YES/NO cancelled cancelled
Change in temperature of gases - oC > 10-15 > 10-15[co] - cancelled cancelled
Change in thermal radiation of fractures - - YES/NO YES/NO[co] - cancelled cancelled
Temperature at fumarole “Pisciarelli” last month oC - - - - > 100-110[p 40]
Node 2        
Presence of acid gases (HF, HCl, SO2) last week - YES/NO (1) YES/NO (2) YES/NO (2) YES/NO (2)[p 47] YES/NO (1)
Variation in magmatic component last month - - - - YES/NO (1)[p 47] YES/NO (1)[p 10]
Change in temperature of gases last month oC > 20-30 (1) > 5-20 (2) - - -
Node 3        
Degassing structure extension or increase in flux last week - > 5-50 (1)[pgf] - - - -
Change in temperature of gases last week oC > 20-50 (1) - - - -
Presence of acid gases (HF, HCl, SO2) last week - YES/NO (1) YES/NO (1) YES/NO (2) YES/NO (1) YES/NO (1)
Phreatic activity last week - - - - YES/NO (1)[p 47] YES/NO (1)
  1. NOTES:
  2. [ co ]: parameter added for coherence among nodes.
  3. [ pgf ]: percent gas flux change.
  4. [ pnn ]: parameter partially accepted, i.e., with probability of acceptance (p α ) equal to 0.nn.
  5. Legend: The analytic elicitation results for geochemistry and thermal parameters are reported. The same symbols of Table 1 are used.