Operational eruption forecasting at high-risk volcanoes: the case of Campi Flegrei, Naples

Table 3 results for geochemistry and thermal parameters

Parameter	inertia	units	ELICIT. I	ELICIT. II	ELICIT. III	ELICIT. IV	ELICIT. V
						(on line)	(on line)
Node 1
Degassing structure extension or increase in flux	last month	-	> 1.8-2.2^[pgf]	-	YES/NO	-	YES/NO^{[p 70]}
Change in composition of gases	last month	-	YES/NO	YES/NO^[co]	YES/NO	-	-
CO₂/H₂O ratio	last month	-	> 0.20	> 0.20-0.25	-	cancelled	cancelled
Presence of acid gases (HF, HCl, SO₂)	last week	-	-	-	-	YES/NO^{[p 27]}	YES/NO^{[p 10]}
Thermal anomaly	-	-	-	-	YES/NO	cancelled	cancelled
Change in temperature of gases	-	^oC	> 10-15	> 10-15^[co]	-	cancelled	cancelled
Change in thermal radiation of fractures	-	-	YES/NO	YES/NO^[co]	-	cancelled	cancelled
Temperature at fumarole “Pisciarelli”	last month	^oC	-	-	-	-	> 100-110^{[p 40]}
Node 2
Presence of acid gases (HF, HCl, SO₂)	last week	-	YES/NO (1)	YES/NO (2)	YES/NO (2)	YES/NO (2)^{[p 47]}	YES/NO (1)
Variation in magmatic component	last month	-	-	-	-	YES/NO (1)^{[p 47]}	YES/NO (1)^{[p 10]}
Change in temperature of gases	last month	^oC	> 20-30 (1)	> 5-20 (2)	-	-	-
Node 3
Degassing structure extension or increase in flux	last week	-	> 5-50 (1)[pgf]	-	-	-	-
Change in temperature of gases	last week	^oC	> 20-50 (1)	-	-	-	-
Presence of acid gases (HF, HCl, SO₂)	last week	-	YES/NO (1)	YES/NO (1)	YES/NO (2)	YES/NO (1)	YES/NO (1)
Phreatic activity	last week	-	-	-	-	YES/NO (1)^{[p 47]}	YES/NO (1)

NOTES:
[ co ]: parameter added for coherence among nodes.
[ pgf ]: percent gas flux change.
[ pnn ]: parameter partially accepted, i.e., with probability of acceptance (p_α) equal to 0.nn.
Legend: The analytic elicitation results for geochemistry and thermal parameters are reported. The same symbols of Table 1 are used.

ISSN: 2191-5040