Figure 2

The probability that an eruption with magnitude 4.5 will be recorded over time (Furlan,2010). The presence function p _c (t,x) gives the probability of an eruption of magnitude x = 4.5 being recorded at time t, using a point process model that assumes incomplete recording up to time k (in years) for k ∈ (0, 1992), after which the under-recording process is absent and eruptions are recorded with probability 1. Here, k ≈ 1600.