Figure 5From: Retrospective analysis of uncertain eruption precursors at La Soufrière volcano, Guadeloupe, 1975–77: volcanic hazard assessment using a Bayesian Belief Network approachLa Soufrière Volcano observations and eruption probabilities for July 1975 to March 1977. Upper three panels: time variations in BBN probability estimates for: (a) a magmatic eruption or magmatic blast; (b) a phreatic eruption, or (c) no eruption, given observation states shown in the lower part of the figure. The unbroken black line denotes the expected (mean) probability estimate and the dashed line the median, as determined by Monte Carlo re-sampling of BBN input distributions; the shaded bands show the corresponding 5–95 percentile ranges, indicating the uncertainty in the forecast probability. Lower ten panels: sequence of observation states input to the BBN to estimate probability of eruption (see text).Back to article page