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Table 3 Comparison of present and proposed VAFFs

From: Improvements of volcanic ash fall forecasts issued by the Japan Meteorological Agency

 

Present VAFF

Proposed VAFF

Type and timing of forecast

Volcanic Ash Fall Forecast

Regular Information

Preliminary Forecast

Full Forecast

Issued within 30–40 min of onset of eruption

Issued regularly (e.g. 3 hourly) before possible eruption

Issued within 5–10 min of onset of eruption

Issued within 20–30 min of onset of eruption

Contents

Forecast1 of situation at six 1-h intervals after onset of eruption: Ash fall area. Prefectures where ash may fall

Forecast1 for an assumed eruption: Ash-fall area. Lapilli-fall area. Recommended actions for affected communities

Forecast2 for first hour after onset of eruption: Ash-fall area and quantity. Municipalities affected. Lapilli-fall area. Recommended actions for affected communities

Forecast2 of situation at six 1-h intervals after onset of eruption: Ash-fall area and quantity. Municipalities affected. Start of ash fall for each municipality. Recommended action for affected communities

  1. 1Meso-scale Model used for forecasts (see Figure 4).
  2. 2Local Forecast Model used for forecasts (see Figure 4).