Enhancing scientific response in a crisis: evidence-based approaches from emergency management in New Zealand

Table 3 The generic scenario planning model of Keough and Shanahan ( 2008 ), and an example of a scenario building model for step 3 given by Schwartz’ 8-step approach (Schwartz 1996 ; as cited in Keough and Shanahan 2008 )

Generic scenario planning model		Schwartz’ 8-step scenario building model
1	Engage in scenario planning	1	Identify focal issue or decision
2	Compose the team	2	Identify key factors in the local environment which influence the decision
3	Scenario Building	3	Identify driving forces that influence key factors in the local environment
4	Decision process	4	Rank by importance and uncertainty
5	Increased performance	5	Select scenario logics
		6	Flesh out scenarios
		7	Consider implications
		8	Selection of leading indicators and signposts

Alternatives to this scenario building model, with additional steps: a) research, b) identifying major stakeholders, and c) communication, can also be found in Wilson and Ralston (2006) and Moats et al. (2008). The 18 step approach of Wilson & Ralston provides a clear road map through four phases of scenario planning, including a) getting started, b) laying the environmental analysis foundation, c) creating the scenarios, and d) moving from scenarios to a decision. Through these various approaches, the current mental models of participants and their assumptions can be identified and improved upon.

ISSN: 2191-5040