Fig. 6

Probability maps that represent total ash accumulation on the ground over a most likely eruption scenario as computed by the TEPHRA2 model. The same results are shown in two different ways: a) the 0.5 exceedance probability (50 % probability of being exceeded) cumulative deposit (in kg/m²) in each grid cell; and b) the probability (as a percentage) of the cumulative deposit exceeding 10 kg/m² over the simulated eruption. A Santorini Weak typical case is assumed. In reality, these probabilities represent an upper bound because ash will be removed or remobilised by natural (rain, wind) and manual clean-up operations. The black star marks the simulated vent location