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Table 1 Annual eruption probability ‘λ (VEI 2–7)’ for each volcanic source in the Indonesian sub-region using a conversion factor of 1.75

From: Probabilistic Volcanic Ash Hazard Analysis (PVAHA) I: development of the VAPAH tool for emulating multi-scale volcanic ash fall analysis

Volcano

Category

N (VEI 2–3)a

λ (VEI 2–3)a

N (VEI 4–7)b

λ (VEI 4–7)b

N (VEI 2–3) normalisedc

N (VEI 2–7)c

λ (VEI 2–7)c

Agung

Large cone

3

0.0125

1

0.00238

5.25

6.25

0.0148

Awu

Large cone

13

0.0541

2

0.00476

22.75

24.75

0.0589

Batur

Caldera

26

0.1083

-

-

45.5

45.5

0.1083

Besar

Large cone

-

-

-

-

-

-

0.0420a

Cereme

Large cone

4

0.0166

-

-

7

7

0.0166

Dieng V.C

Large cone

22

0.0916

-

-

38.5

38.5

0.0916

Dukono

Large cone

3

0.0125

-

-

5.25

5.25

0.0125

Galunggung

Large cone

3

0.0125

2

0.00476

5.25

7.25

0.0172

Gamalama

Large cone

57

0.2375

-

-

99.75

99.75

0.2375

Gamkonora

Large cone

11

0.0458

1

0.00238

19.25

20.25

0.0482

Gede

Large cone

23

0.0958

-

-

40.25

40.25

0.0958

Guntur

Large cone

22

0.0916

-

-

38.5

38.5

0.0916

Ijen

Large cone

10

0.0416

-

-

17.5

17.5

0.0416

Kelut

Large cone

13

0.0541

6

0.01428

22.75

28.75

0.0684

Krakatau

Caldera

41

0.1708

1

0.00238

71.75

72.75

0.1732

Lokon-Empung

Large cone

25

0.1041

-

-

43.75

43.75

0.1041

Mahawu

Large cone

6

0.025

-

-

10.5

10.5

0.025

Makian

Large cone

6

0.025

3

0.00714

10.5

13.5

0.0321

Merapi

Large cone

54

0.225

2

0.00476

94.5

96.5

0.2297

Raung

Large cone

59

0.2458

4

0.00952

103.25

107.25

0.2553

Rinjani

Large cone

15

0.0625

-

-

26.25

26.25

0.0625

Salak

Large cone

5

0.0208

-

-

8.75

8.75

0.0208

Sangeang Api

Large cone

16

0.0666

-

-

28

28

0.0666

Semeru

Large cone

59

0.2458

-

-

103.25

103.25

0.245833

Serua

Large cone

7

0.0291

1

0.00238

12.25

13.25

0.0315

Sinabung

Large cone

1

0.0041

-

-

1.75

1.75

0.0041

Suoh

Caldera

-

-

1

0.00238

0

1

0.0023

Tambora

Large cone

6

0.025

1

0.00238

10.5

11.5

0.0273

Teon

Large cone

1

0.0041

1

0.00238

1.75

2.75

0.0065

Tongkoko

Large cone

4

0.0166

1

0.00238

7

8

0.0190

Wurlali

Large cone

1

0.0041

-

-

1.75

1.75

0.0041

  1. aROC = T = 240 years, bROC = T = 420 years, cROC (normalised) = T = 420 years