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Table 4 Annual probability of an event of a particular magnitude occurring for each volcanic source in the Indonesian sub-region

From: Probabilistic Volcanic Ash Hazard Analysis (PVAHA) I: development of the VAPAH tool for emulating multi-scale volcanic ash fall analysis

Volcano

P(VEI 0)

P(VEI 1)

P(VEI 2)

P(VEI 3)

P(VEI 4)

P(VEI 5)

P(VEI 6)

P(VEI 7)

Agung

3.4E-04

2.5E-03

7.8E-03

1.2E-03

7.4E-03

2.6E-03

6.2E-04

1.0E-04

Awu

1.4E-03

1.0E-02

3.1E-02

4.7E-03

2.9E-02

1.0E-02

2.5E-03

4.1E-04

Batur

7.8E-04

4.1E-03

8.1E-03

8.2E-04

1.3E-02

2.6E-03

2.6E-03

3.8E-04

Besara

9.7E-04

7.2E-03

2.2E-02

3.3E-03

2.1E-02

7.5E-03

1.8E-03

2.9E-04

Cereme

3.8E-04

2.8E-03

8.7E-03

1.3E-03

8.3E-03

3.0E-03

6.9E-04

1.2E-04

Dieng V.C

2.1E-03

1.6E-02

4.8E-02

7.3E-03

4.6E-02

1.6E-02

3.8E-03

6.4E-04

Galunggung

4.0E-04

2.9E-03

9.0E-03

1.4E-03

8.6E-03

3.1E-03

7.2E-04

1.2E-04

Gamalama

5.5E-03

4.1E-02

1.2E-01

1.9E-02

1.2E-01

4.2E-02

9.9E-03

1.6E-03

Gamkonora

1.1E-03

8.2E-03

2.5E-02

3.8E-03

2.4E-02

8.5E-03

2.0E-03

3.3E-04

Gede

2.2E-03

1.6E-02

5.0E-02

7.6E-03

4.8E-02

1.7E-02

4.0E-03

6.7E-04

Guntur

2.1E-03

1.6E-02

4.8E-02

7.3E-03

4.6E-02

1.6E-02

3.8E-03

6.4E-04

Ijen

9.6E-04

7.1E-03

2.2E-02

3.3E-03

2.1E-02

7.4E-03

1.7E-03

2.9E-04

Kelut

1.6E-03

1.2E-02

3.6E-02

5.4E-03

3.4E-02

1.2E-02

2.9E-03

4.8E-04

Krakatau

1.3E-03

6.5E-03

1.3E-02

1.3E-03

2.0E-02

4.2E-03

4.2E-03

6.0E-04

Lokon-Empung

2.4E-03

1.8E-02

5.4E-02

8.3E-03

5.2E-02

1.8E-02

4.3E-03

7.2E-04

Mahawu

5.7E-04

4.3E-03

1.3E-02

2.0E-03

1.3E-02

4.4E-03

1.0E-03

1.7E-04

Makian

7.4E-04

5.5E-03

1.7E-02

2.6E-03

1.6E-02

5.7E-03

1.3E-03

2.2E-04

Marapi

5.7E-03

4.2E-02

1.3E-01

2.0E-02

1.2E-01

4.4E-02

1.0E-02

1.7E-03

Merapi

5.3E-03

3.9E-02

1.2E-01

1.8E-02

1.1E-01

4.1E-02

9.6E-03

1.6E-03

Raung

5.9E-03

4.4E-02

1.3E-01

2.0E-02

1.3E-01

4.5E-02

1.1E-02

1.8E-03

Rinjani

1.4E-03

1.1E-02

3.3E-02

5.0E-03

3.1E-02

1.1E-02

2.6E-03

4.3E-04

Salak

4.8E-04

3.6E-03

1.1E-02

1.7E-03

1.0E-02

3.7E-03

8.7E-04

1.4E-04

Sangeang Api

1.5E-03

1.1E-02

3.5E-02

5.3E-03

3.3E-02

1.2E-02

2.8E-03

4.6E-04

Semeru

5.7E-03

4.2E-02

1.3E-01

2.0E-02

1.2E-01

4.4E-02

1.0E-02

1.7E-03

Serua

7.3E-04

5.4E-03

1.6E-02

2.5E-03

1.6E-02

5.6E-03

1.3E-03

2.2E-04

Sinabung

9.6E-05

7.1E-04

2.2E-03

3.3E-04

2.1E-03

7.4E-04

1.7E-04

2.9E-05

Suoh

1.7E-05

8.9E-05

1.8E-04

1.8E-05

2.8E-04

5.8E-05

5.8E-05

8.3E-06

Tambora

6.3E-04

4.7E-03

1.4E-02

2.2E-03

1.4E-02

4.8E-03

1.1E-03

1.9E-04

Teon

1.5E-04

1.1E-03

3.4E-03

5.2E-04

3.3E-03

1.2E-03

2.7E-04

4.5E-05

Tongkoko

4.4E-04

3.3E-03

9.9E-03

1.5E-03

9.5E-03

3.4E-03

7.9E-04

1.3E-04

Wurlali

9.6E-05

7.1E-04

2.2E-03

3.3E-04

2.1E-03

7.4E-04

1.7E-04

2.9E-05

  1. aAnalogue annual eruption probabilities based on the average annual eruption probabilities for large cones at each magnitude in the database