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Table 4 Annual probability of an event of a particular magnitude occurring for each volcanic source in the Indonesian sub-region

From: Probabilistic Volcanic Ash Hazard Analysis (PVAHA) I: development of the VAPAH tool for emulating multi-scale volcanic ash fall analysis

Volcano P(VEI 0) P(VEI 1) P(VEI 2) P(VEI 3) P(VEI 4) P(VEI 5) P(VEI 6) P(VEI 7)
Agung 3.4E-04 2.5E-03 7.8E-03 1.2E-03 7.4E-03 2.6E-03 6.2E-04 1.0E-04
Awu 1.4E-03 1.0E-02 3.1E-02 4.7E-03 2.9E-02 1.0E-02 2.5E-03 4.1E-04
Batur 7.8E-04 4.1E-03 8.1E-03 8.2E-04 1.3E-02 2.6E-03 2.6E-03 3.8E-04
Besara 9.7E-04 7.2E-03 2.2E-02 3.3E-03 2.1E-02 7.5E-03 1.8E-03 2.9E-04
Cereme 3.8E-04 2.8E-03 8.7E-03 1.3E-03 8.3E-03 3.0E-03 6.9E-04 1.2E-04
Dieng V.C 2.1E-03 1.6E-02 4.8E-02 7.3E-03 4.6E-02 1.6E-02 3.8E-03 6.4E-04
Galunggung 4.0E-04 2.9E-03 9.0E-03 1.4E-03 8.6E-03 3.1E-03 7.2E-04 1.2E-04
Gamalama 5.5E-03 4.1E-02 1.2E-01 1.9E-02 1.2E-01 4.2E-02 9.9E-03 1.6E-03
Gamkonora 1.1E-03 8.2E-03 2.5E-02 3.8E-03 2.4E-02 8.5E-03 2.0E-03 3.3E-04
Gede 2.2E-03 1.6E-02 5.0E-02 7.6E-03 4.8E-02 1.7E-02 4.0E-03 6.7E-04
Guntur 2.1E-03 1.6E-02 4.8E-02 7.3E-03 4.6E-02 1.6E-02 3.8E-03 6.4E-04
Ijen 9.6E-04 7.1E-03 2.2E-02 3.3E-03 2.1E-02 7.4E-03 1.7E-03 2.9E-04
Kelut 1.6E-03 1.2E-02 3.6E-02 5.4E-03 3.4E-02 1.2E-02 2.9E-03 4.8E-04
Krakatau 1.3E-03 6.5E-03 1.3E-02 1.3E-03 2.0E-02 4.2E-03 4.2E-03 6.0E-04
Lokon-Empung 2.4E-03 1.8E-02 5.4E-02 8.3E-03 5.2E-02 1.8E-02 4.3E-03 7.2E-04
Mahawu 5.7E-04 4.3E-03 1.3E-02 2.0E-03 1.3E-02 4.4E-03 1.0E-03 1.7E-04
Makian 7.4E-04 5.5E-03 1.7E-02 2.6E-03 1.6E-02 5.7E-03 1.3E-03 2.2E-04
Marapi 5.7E-03 4.2E-02 1.3E-01 2.0E-02 1.2E-01 4.4E-02 1.0E-02 1.7E-03
Merapi 5.3E-03 3.9E-02 1.2E-01 1.8E-02 1.1E-01 4.1E-02 9.6E-03 1.6E-03
Raung 5.9E-03 4.4E-02 1.3E-01 2.0E-02 1.3E-01 4.5E-02 1.1E-02 1.8E-03
Rinjani 1.4E-03 1.1E-02 3.3E-02 5.0E-03 3.1E-02 1.1E-02 2.6E-03 4.3E-04
Salak 4.8E-04 3.6E-03 1.1E-02 1.7E-03 1.0E-02 3.7E-03 8.7E-04 1.4E-04
Sangeang Api 1.5E-03 1.1E-02 3.5E-02 5.3E-03 3.3E-02 1.2E-02 2.8E-03 4.6E-04
Semeru 5.7E-03 4.2E-02 1.3E-01 2.0E-02 1.2E-01 4.4E-02 1.0E-02 1.7E-03
Serua 7.3E-04 5.4E-03 1.6E-02 2.5E-03 1.6E-02 5.6E-03 1.3E-03 2.2E-04
Sinabung 9.6E-05 7.1E-04 2.2E-03 3.3E-04 2.1E-03 7.4E-04 1.7E-04 2.9E-05
Suoh 1.7E-05 8.9E-05 1.8E-04 1.8E-05 2.8E-04 5.8E-05 5.8E-05 8.3E-06
Tambora 6.3E-04 4.7E-03 1.4E-02 2.2E-03 1.4E-02 4.8E-03 1.1E-03 1.9E-04
Teon 1.5E-04 1.1E-03 3.4E-03 5.2E-04 3.3E-03 1.2E-03 2.7E-04 4.5E-05
Tongkoko 4.4E-04 3.3E-03 9.9E-03 1.5E-03 9.5E-03 3.4E-03 7.9E-04 1.3E-04
Wurlali 9.6E-05 7.1E-04 2.2E-03 3.3E-04 2.1E-03 7.4E-04 1.7E-04 2.9E-05
  1. aAnalogue annual eruption probabilities based on the average annual eruption probabilities for large cones at each magnitude in the database