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Table 3 Subset of sources across the Asia-Pacific and associated annual eruption probabilities

From: Probabilistic Volcanic Ash Hazard Analysis (PVAHA) II: assessment of the Asia-Pacific region using VAPAH

Source Sub-region Volcano type P(VEI 2) P(VEI 3) P(VEI 4) P(VEI 5) P(VEI 6) P(VEI 7)
Ulawun PNG Large cone 0.10477 0.01594 0.10032 0.03553 0.00836 0.00139
Ambrym Vanuatu Shield 0.01241 0.00136 0.01446 0.00206 0.00206 0
Pinatubo Philippines Large cone 0.008332 0.001268 0.007979 0.00282 0.00066 0.00011
Bulusan Philippines Large cone 0.04364 0.006642 0.041788 0.0148 0.00348 0.00058
Musuan Philippines Lava dome 6.99E-06 3.49E-06 9.23E-05 5.54E-05 0 0
Sakura-Jima Japan Large cone 0.0055 0.000837 0.005267 0.00186 0.00043 7.31E-05
Sumiyoshi-ike Japan Small cone 0.000272 0.00015 0.000576 0 0 0
Sangeang Api Indonesia Large cone 0.034811 0.005298 0.033333 0.01180 0.00277 0.00046
Kelud Indonesia Large cone 0.035744 0.00544 0.034226 0.01212 0.00285 0.00047
Suoh Indonesia Caldera 0.000178 1.80E-05 0.000281 5.79E-05 5.79E-05 8.27E-06
Taupo NZ Caldera 0.000116 1.17E-05 0.000184 3.78E-05 3.78E-05 5.4E-06
Ruapehu NZ Large cone 0.140448 0.021377 0.134486 0.04763 0.01120 0.00186
White Island NZ Large cone 0.084269 0.012826 0.080692 0.02857 0.00672 0.00112
Karymsky Russia Large cone 0.046167 0.007027 0.044207 0.01565 0.00368 0.00061
Ushishur Russia Caldera 0.000419 4.23E-05 0.000661 0.00013 0.00013 1.94E-05
Niuafo’ou Tonga Shield 0.001876 0.000207 0.002186 0.00031 0.00031 0