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Table 2 The timing of alert level activations during the 2014–2015 eruption, and the alert level scheme (Faria 2010; Faria and Fonseca 2014) used by the National Institute of Meteorology and Geophysics (INMG), the official meteorological and volcanological hazard monitoring agency for Cape Verde. Times are local (UTC - 1 h)

From: Damage from lava flows: insights from the 2014–2015 eruption of Fogo, Cape Verde

Level Criteria Interpretation Depth Time window for possible eruption Activation during 2014–2015 eruption
Escalation Decline
1 • Usual records Normal state - - Background 25 February
2 • Long term ground deformation (GPS, InSAR)
• Seismic noise modification
An eruption is possible soon 5 to 13 km 10 days to 5 months Early October -
3 • Peak of seismic activity
• Variation of the tilt
Probable eruption 4 to 5 km 4 to 40 days 21 November 20 February
4 • Peak of the tilt
• Long-period events with greater magnitude and number
Very probable eruption 2 to 4 km To be determined as the dike progresses 20:00, 22 November AM, 8 February
5 • Seismic activity is maintained
• Continuous tremor
Imminent eruption 0 to 2 km 08:30, 23 November