Fig. 1
From: Rational volcanic hazard forecasts and the use of volcanic alert levels
Time evolution of the day-by-day probability associated with the nodes “magmatic unrest”, and “eruption” of the event tree in Selva et al. (2012) computed for the last five months covered during a volcanic crisis exercise at Campi Flegrei. The exercise, conducted as part of the EU/FP7 VUELCO project, was a blind test of the response of the scientific community to observations and records generated by a group simulating the volcano; and covered the period from February 2014 (time of the exercise) to 4 April 2021. The “unrest” node, not shown, would display a constant value of 1 for all lines in the panels and for the entire period in the figure. In the “eruption” panel, probabilities refer to a one-week time period. Computations: courtesy of L. Sandri, INGV