Table 5 Sources of error and uncertainty for volcanic fragility and vulnerability functions
From: Framework for developing volcanic fragility and vulnerability functions for critical infrastructure
Factor | Source of uncertainty |
|---|---|
Hazard intensity metric (HIM) | Lack of observed and/or measured HIM Physical factors (e.g. compaction, erosion, natural local variations in hazard intensity) Incorrect measurement of HIM Incorrect or incomplete recording of HIM (e.g. units missing) Selection of appropriate HIM |
Impact data | Localised variation in impact on assets Asset typology (e.g. condition, age, consturction quality) and difficulties in assigning post-event Uncertainty in the definition of ISs Incorrect classification of observed impacts into ISs Limited number of observations, spatial coverage and biased samples Sampling methodology |
Asset data | Differences in asset vulnerability for the same asset typology Incorrect identification of asset typology Limited number of observations for each asset typology |
Function fitting | Data manipulation Expert judgment biases Selection of statistical model to represent function |