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Fig. 8 | Journal of Applied Volcanology

Fig. 8

From: Regional and global under-recording of large explosive eruptions in the last 1000 years

Fig. 8

A 2D margin of the recording probability function from the ‘Japan, Taiwan, Marianas’ region at around 1600 CE (see Fig. 4). This shows the location of the marginal posterior distribution (opaque grey dots), the two 1D margins (on the axes), and the corresponding margin of the MAP estimate (large black dot). The contour lines show 95% and 50% 2D credible regions. The dashed line represents the constraint that the recording probabilities are increasing. Even though the 1D margins look quite bell-shaped, the constraint makes the joint distribution extremely non-Gaussian, and for this reason the 2D margin of the MAP estimate need not correspond to the MAP estimates of the 1D or 2D margins, and does not in this case

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