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Table 1 Definition of variables used in equations used in VoLREst (see Table 2)

From: Evaluating life-safety risk for fieldwork on active volcanoes: the volcano life risk estimator (VoLREst), a volcano observatory’s decision-support tool

Variable

Definition

Equations (see Table 2)

P (Etw1+)

Probability of at least one eruption of a specified size or greater within a specified time window

1

P (NOtw)

Probability of no eruption of a specified size or greater within a specified time window

1, 2

P (NOh)

Hourly probability of no eruption of a specified size or greater

2, 3

P (Eh)

Hourly probability of an eruption of a specified size or greater

3, 4, 5, 6, 8

P (EhL)

Hourly probability of a large eruption

4, 5, 8

P (EhM)

Hourly probability of a moderate eruption

5, 8

P (EhS)

Hourly probability of a small eruption

6, 8

P (X|E)

Probability of exposure to specified hazard given an eruption

7

P (Fx|X)

Probability of a fatality given exposure to specified hazard

7

P (Fx|E)

Probability of a fatality due to specified hazard given an eruption; subscript b refers specifically to the ballistic hazard

7, 8, 12

P (Fhx)

Hourly probability of a fatality due to specified hazard. Subscript hx.size refers to the hourly probability for a specific eruption size.

8, 14

L

Reference length for ballistic calculation

9, 10

B

Representative ballistic diameter

9, 10

Nb

Number of ballistics in reference area/crossing reference length

 

W

Representative diameter of a person

9, 10

P (bhit)

Probability of being struck by one ballistic

9, 10

P (Sx)

Probability of surviving hazard; subscript nb specifically refers to the designated number of ballistics in reference area/length, and subscript x.size refers to the hazard associated with a specific eruption size

11, 13, 14

P (Fhx.size)

Hourly probability of fatality at a given site from a given eruption size (large, moderate or small)

14, 15