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Table 4 Timing and duration of Whakaari VoLREst risk calculations in 2016

From: Evaluating life-safety risk for fieldwork on active volcanoes: the volcano life risk estimator (VoLREst), a volcano observatory’s decision-support tool

Risk calculation date

Volcano Alert Level

Time window

Reason for calculation

18 January 2016

VAL 1

13 weeks

Previous calculation expired

18 April 2016

VAL 1

13 weeks

Previous calculation expired

28 April 2016

VAL 3

1 week

Change in VAL status (short-lived eruption night of 27 April)

2 May 2016

VAL 2

4 weeks

Change in VAL status

30 May 2016

VAL 1

4 weeks

Previous calculation expired

27 June 2016

VAL 1

13 weeks

Previous calculation expired

13 September 2016

VAL 3

1 week

Change in VAL status (minor ash venting on 13 September)

16 September 2016

VAL 2

4 weeks

Change in VAL status (on 15 September)

10 October 2016

VAL 1

4 weeks

Previous calculation set to expire later that week; routine risk calculations done on a Monday following weekly volcano monitoring team meeting, so the risk calculation done on a Monday prior to the previous calculation expiring to realign to standard schedule.

7 November 2016

VAL 1

13 weeks

Previous calculation expired

  1. On both 9 May and 19 September the VAL was lowered from 2 to 1, but the decision was made as a monitoring team to keep the current risk calculation until it expired or there was a renewed increase in unrest or eruptive activity