Table 8 Retrospective VoLREst analysis for Te Maari volcano, November 2012
| Historical record as of November 2012 (ballistics only) | Historical record as of November 2012 (ballistics and PDC) | Expert elicitation in October 2012 (ballistics only) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| VoLREst description |
• Values populated January 2014 • Ballistics only • Three sites (including vent) • Three eruption sizes |
• Values populated January 2014 • Ballistics and PDC • Three sites (including vent) • Three eruption sizes |
• Values populated by expert elicitation in October 2012 • Ballistics only • Two sites (including vent) • Two eruption sizes |
| Eruption likelihood | 0.27 | 0.08 | |
| Time window | 365 days | 90 days | |
| Hourly risk of fatality at the vent | 3.59 × 10−5 | 3.86 × 10− 5 | |
| 10− 4 distance | 0 km | 0 km | 0 km |
| 10− 5 distance | 0.42 km | 0.70 km | 0.57 km |
| Required action for fieldwork at vent | Standard GNS Science fieldwork procedures AND required authorisation from Head of Volcanology department | ||