Fig. 5

Flow chart illustrating a common progression of processes triggered by a volcanic crisis and leading to decisions that mitigate risk, and illustrating how VOBP1 recommendations on near-term forecasting contribute to these processes. This flowchart shows how a volcanic crisis triggers the analysis of monitoring data, local volcanic history, analogues from global databases and long-term hazard assessment information (see “VOBP2: communication of volcanic hazards, 2 - 6 November 2013” section of this paper). These analytical processes are incorporated into a major outcome (a probabilistic forecast), which is typically linked to issuance of an alert and/or warning by the observatory or civil protection agency, depending on national/societal role (as determined through protocols). Alerts typically provide situational awareness to partners involved in civil protection and mitigation. Analysis of vulnerability and risk, along with the forecast determines public decisions to mitigate risk, such as evacuations