Table 1 Abbreviated versions of VOBP recommendations. See text for details and context

Long-term volcanic hazard assessment (VOBP3; “VOBP3: long-term volcanic hazard assessments, 15-18 November 2016” section)

1. Geologic information, model results, analogous eruptions are foundations for assessment

2. Statistical models aid hazard mapping; complex numerical models inform understanding

3. Global databases inform and validate long- and near-term assessments

4. Next-generation hazard assessments are portfolios of products tailored to meet user needs

5. Conceptual models aid in hazard assessment

6. Event trees are logical probabilistic frameworks that aid in hazard analysis

7. All scenarios are important to emergency managers (even those with low probability); showing vulnerable infrastructure on hazard maps is also important

8. Hazard mitigation requires guidance from stakeholders and relationships with decision makers; institutional responsibility determines roles of observatories in mitigation

9. Communicating probabilities requires a practice of dialogue and mutual understanding

10. Long-term hazard assessments, while obviously necessary for risk analysis, are also informed and prioritized by evaluations of vulnerability and risk

Near-term eruption forecasting (VOBP1; “VOBP1: near-term eruption forecasting, 11 - 15 September 2011” section)

1. Minimal monitoring of all hazardous volcanoes is needed; prioritization is based on threat ranking; multi-parameter monitoring reduces uncertainties

2. Eruptions are difficult to forecast with certainty; hence, probabilistic methods with uncertainties are recommended

3. Forecasts are improved by sharing data and experiences, and by comparative studies, which rely on databases; databases should strive for compatibility and open-access

4. Forecasts are improved by research into magmatic processes at “laboratory volcanoes”

5. Roles for use of forecasts to mitigate risk should be clearly defined

6. Universities are natural partners for volcano observatories. Responsibility for communication of hazards lies with the observatory

Volcanic hazard communication (VOBP2; “VOBP2: communication of volcanic hazards, 2 - 6 November 2013” section)

1. Observatory leader(s) seek the best knowledge and consensus, ensure documentation of decisions, speak with a single/common voice. Rapid consensus facilitated by practice

2. Observatories convey hazard information in standardized formats, use probabilistic analyses and direct modes of communication

3. Observatories communicate regularly with mitigation authorities, work with communities to build trust and credibility and engage with stakeholders at all phases of the emergency cycle

4. Sharing of data and expertise, exchanges between observatories, participation in workshops and training programs enhance observatory capabilities

5. Education programs with civil-protection partners increases community resilience

6. Roles and responsibilities for hazard and mitigation communication must be clearly defined