Fig. 4
a and b: observed and simulated tephra masses per unit area, respectively, of the 2011 Kirishima-Shinmoedake eruption dataset. In b, the ESPs and wind conditions are determined based on the posterior means. See Table 8 for their values. The corresponding isopachs are also shown in the four subfigures. Levels of these isopachs are 50, 25, 10, 5, 1 kg/m2; c: absolute difference (point size) and difference (point color) between simulated and observed masses per unit area. d: relative error, i.e., (simulation-observation)/observation for each sample. Points that have relative error with magnitude greater than 1 are marked as crosses