Table 1 Main aspects to be assessed in the frame of long-term risk management

➢ Time window (probability of occurrence in a certain period of time)

➢ Spatial extension

➢ Level of specific hazards and their variation with distance from source (e.g. concentration of gas, load of tephra, seismic ground acceleration)

➢ Identification and distribution of elements located within the area of potential hazard inundation:

• buildings, roads, infrastructure (e.g. hospital, heliports, ports)

• people

• economic assets (e.g. agriculture, livestock, shops)

Vulnerability assessment

Physical dimension

➢ Selection of specific criteria to examine when considering the fragility of an element at risk towards a specific hazard and characterization of the behaviour depending on the level of hazard (fragility curves):

• Residential buildings (typology defined based on the available parameters for hazard)

• Infrastructure (e.g. power, water, telecommunication, road network) – analysis of potential weaknesses toward a specific hazard

• People (e.g. day- and night-time distribution, composition of the population - residents, tourists, seasonal workers, age distribution, health status, literacy rate)

• Agriculture (including livestock) – fragility analysis towards specific hazards

• Shops/hotels/restaurants – fragility analysis towards specific hazards

Systemic dimension (with focus on accessibility, redundancy, and interdependency)

➢ Accessibility to main facilities (e.g. health centre, school, heliport, harbours); this depends on the quality of the road network

➢ Accessibility to the island (e.g. availability of boats, weather conditions)

➢ Redundancy of infrastructure

➢ Interdependency between the Aeolian island, the main island (Sicily) and the mainland (Italy)

➢ Education in hazard and risk; mainstreaming of disaster risk management in various institutions (e.g. civil protection)

➢ Existence of structural (e.g. drainages for debris flows, roof reinforcement for tephra load) and non-structural (e.g. reconstruction plans, clean-up strategies, Master plans that account for potential hazards) mitigation measures

➢ Diversified economy

➢ Number of buildings to be damaged, potential economic costs, potential quantity of debris generated (based on the number of buildings being damaged, considering their surface and height)

➢ Infrastructure to be damaged, economic cost, impact of the functionality loss on the community

➢ Number of people potentially being injured, killed, or affected

➢ Economic losses related to, for example, business interruption, loss of livestock, damage to crops, impact on tourism and disruption of transportation

➢ Towards risk mitigation:

• Land-use planning considering specific hazards:

- Relocation of assets and infrastructures – risk avoidance

- Protective measures – risk mitigation

- Preparedness and contingency plans – risk control

• Social aspects around these aspects (risk aversion, risk perception, participatory approaches)

• Cost-benefit analysis of mitigation measures (structural / non-structural measures)

➢ Towards reconstruction:

• Debris management

• Reconstruction planning integrating lessons learned from damage assessment

• Window of opportunity - alternative models of tourism and development for the island

• Social aspects (participatory approach with different stakeholders)

• Economic assessment of the different alternative models