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Fig. 2 | Journal of Applied Volcanology

Fig. 2

From: How big will the next eruption be?

Fig. 2

Performance of forecasting models for the Holocene for each VEI data subset (see legend). (A) Accuracy gain of historied volcanoes relative to cohort baseline accuracy. Forecasting accuracy is estimated based on fivefold cross-validation. Small white numbers are the total number of volcanoes (N) in each dataset. Error bars are 1 standard deviation of cohort baseline accuracy based resampling (see text), which maps directly into error on accuracy gain. Downward arrows indicate negative accuracy gains, i.e., an ineffective prediction method. (B) Accuracy gain relative to cohort baseline on the unhistoried volcanoes. This dataset cannot be used for attributes that demand a history of VEI, such as the simple statistical predictions. Error bars are 1 standard deviation of cohort baseline accuracy. (C) Estimated total accuracy of all models based on fivefold cross-validation

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