Fig. 1
From: Probabilistic volcanic hazard assessment at an active but under-monitored volcano: Ceboruco, Mexico
Graphical representation of the Ceboruco event tree (ET). The example illustrated here is the event tree developed for Ceboruco based on prior models and past data. We identify three potential causes of unrest at Ceboruco: new magma entering the system, a large tectonic earthquake in the graben or an increased degassing episode associated with non-magmatic changes in the hydrothermal system. Each unrest episode has associated potentially hazardous phenomena. For example, we consider that rockslides and debris flows can occur at Ceboruco even if the volcano is not in unrest due to the instability of the volcano’s edifice and/or due to heavy rainfall. The highlighted branch and associated nodes (gray boxes) represent the sequence of events attributed to a potential magmatic unrest that we assess with PyBetVH. Note that some of these phenomena have relatively high probability in eruptive scenarios while others (e.g., debris avalanche) have relatively low probability. The ET attempts to account for all contingencies