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Fig. 5 | Journal of Applied Volcanology

Fig. 5

From: Probabilistic volcanic hazard assessment at an active but under-monitored volcano: Ceboruco, Mexico

Fig. 5

a The probabilities of the first three nodes of the ET given Ceboruco is not currently in unrest. The black line with triangle markers shows the probabilities based on the mean likelihood functions. The blue line with cross markers, represent the probabilities using maximum ignorance at each node plus likelihood functions. The green line with circle marker corresponds to the case in which node 3 uses 64% of unrest leading to eruption (Phillipson et al. 2013) with high uncertainty whereas the red line with plus marker uses the same information but with higher confidence in the data (lower uncertainty). b The probabilities of the first three nodes of the ET given Ceboruco is currently in unrest (i.e., Punrest = 1). The colored lines correspond to the same assumptions at each node as described for the first scenario. The figure insets show the overall probability of eruption for the two scenarios: PLK – probability estimate based on the likelihood function alone; P50 – adding maximum ignorance at each node; Ph-u – adding Phillipson et al. (2013) data at node 3 with high uncertainty (high variance); Pl-u – adding the same data but with more confidence (low variance). NOTE: the probability scale in panel a) is log

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