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Table 2 Summary of the hazardous phenomena considered in our event tree for each of the three scenarios considered. For past data we have the number of times the selected phenomena occurred at past eruptions. Most past data are considered for Scenario 3 (Plinian eruption) due to the better preservation and mapping of the deposits of the Jala eruption. As prior models we used the maps created by various simulation tools used by Sieron et al. (2019b) for each considered phenomenon

From: Probabilistic volcanic hazard assessment at an active but under-monitored volcano: Ceboruco, Mexico

Hazardous phenomena

Past data

Prior models

Scenario 1

Scenario 2

Scenario 3

Ballistics

0

0

1

540 simulations with Eject! (Mastin 2001)

Tephra fallout

0

0

1

S1 and S2: 24 simulations with HAZMAP (Macedonio et al. 2005)

S3: 1000 simulations with Tephra2 (Bonadonna et al. 2005)

Pyroclastic density currents

–

0

1

66 simulations with Titan2D and Energy Cone

(Patra et al. 2005, Schilling 1998)

Lahars

–

0

1

54 simulations with LaharZ (Schilling 1998)

Lava flows

1

1

–

539 simulations with ELFM (Damiani et al. 2006)