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Table 4 results of the elicitation V

From: Operational eruption forecasting at high-risk volcanoes: the case of Campi Flegrei, Naples

 

inertia

units

threshold

weight

Node 1

    

1) # VT (M > 0.8)

()

ev/day

> 5-15

-

2) # LP/VLP/ULP

()

ev/month

> 2-10

-

3) Uplift

cum. last 3 months

cm

> 2-6

-

4) Uplift rate

last 3 months

cm/month

> 0.7-1.3

-

5) New fractures

last 3 months

-

YES/NO

-

6) Degassing structure extension or increase in flux

last month

-

YES/NO

-

7) Presence of acid gases (HF, HCl, SO2)

last week

-

YES/NO

-

8) Temperature at fumarole “Pisciarelli”

last month

oC

> 100-110

-

Node 2

    

1) # deep VT (> 3.5 km, M > 0.8)

()

ev/day

> 2-20

0.90

2) # deep LP (> 2.0 km)

()

ev/month

> 3-20

0.50

3) # VLP/ULP

()

ev/month

> 1-5

1

4) Presence of tremor

last month

-

YES/NO

1

5) Presence of deep tremor (> 3.5 km)

last month

-

YES/NO

1

6) Uplift

cum. last 3 months

cm

> 5-15

1

7) New fractures

last 3 months

-

YES/NO

0.20

8) Macroscopic variation on the

last 3 months

-

YES/NO

1

deformation pattern (tens of m)

    

9) Presence of acid gases (HF, HCl, SO2)

last week

-

YES/NO

1

10) Variation in magmatic component

last month

-

YES/NO

0.10

Node 3

    

1) Acceleration in # seismic events

last week

-

YES/NO

1

2) Acceleration in RSAM

last week

-

YES/NO

0.70

3) Presence of tremor

last month

-

YES/NO

1

4) Hypocenter dispersion (depth range) (10th - 90th perc.)

last week

km

> 1-3

0.30

5) Macroscopic variation on the

last week

-

YES/NO

1

deformation pattern (tens of m)

    

6) Migration of incremental maximum (m)

last week

-

YES/NO

0.70

7) New fractures

last 3 months

-

YES/NO

0.40

8) Presence of acid gases (HF, HCl, SO2)

last week

-

YES/NO

1

9) Phreatic activity

last week

-

YES/NO

1

  1. NOTES:
  2. (): number of observed events divided by the number of days from the observation. This choice makes the inertia proportional to the registered number of events (and the total energy emitted), that is, the higher the number of events, the longer the inertia.
  3. Legend: The results of the elicitation V are here reported. The same symbols of Table 1 are used.