From: Operational eruption forecasting at high-risk volcanoes: the case of Campi Flegrei, Naples
inertia | units | threshold | weight | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Node 1 | ||||
1) # VT (M > 0.8) | (∗) | ev/day | > 5-15 | - |
2) # LP/VLP/ULP | (∗) | ev/month | > 2-10 | - |
3) Uplift | cum. last 3 months | cm | > 2-6 | - |
4) Uplift rate | last 3 months | cm/month | > 0.7-1.3 | - |
5) New fractures | last 3 months | - | YES/NO | - |
6) Degassing structure extension or increase in flux | last month | - | YES/NO | - |
7) Presence of acid gases (HF, HCl, SO2) | last week | - | YES/NO | - |
8) Temperature at fumarole “Pisciarelli” | last month | oC | > 100-110 | - |
Node 2 | ||||
1) # deep VT (> 3.5 km, M > 0.8) | (∗) | ev/day | > 2-20 | 0.90 |
2) # deep LP (> 2.0 km) | (∗) | ev/month | > 3-20 | 0.50 |
3) # VLP/ULP | (∗) | ev/month | > 1-5 | 1 |
4) Presence of tremor | last month | - | YES/NO | 1 |
5) Presence of deep tremor (> 3.5 km) | last month | - | YES/NO | 1 |
6) Uplift | cum. last 3 months | cm | > 5-15 | 1 |
7) New fractures | last 3 months | - | YES/NO | 0.20 |
8) Macroscopic variation on the | last 3 months | - | YES/NO | 1 |
deformation pattern (tens of m) | ||||
9) Presence of acid gases (HF, HCl, SO2) | last week | - | YES/NO | 1 |
10) Variation in magmatic component | last month | - | YES/NO | 0.10 |
Node 3 | ||||
1) Acceleration in # seismic events | last week | - | YES/NO | 1 |
2) Acceleration in RSAM | last week | - | YES/NO | 0.70 |
3) Presence of tremor | last month | - | YES/NO | 1 |
4) Hypocenter dispersion (depth range) (10th - 90th perc.) | last week | km | > 1-3 | 0.30 |
5) Macroscopic variation on the | last week | - | YES/NO | 1 |
deformation pattern (tens of m) | ||||
6) Migration of incremental maximum (m) | last week | - | YES/NO | 0.70 |
7) New fractures | last 3 months | - | YES/NO | 0.40 |
8) Presence of acid gases (HF, HCl, SO2) | last week | - | YES/NO | 1 |
9) Phreatic activity | last week | - | YES/NO | 1 |