Articles

MatHaz: a Matlab code to assist with probabilistic spatio-temporal volcanic hazard assessment in distributed volcanic fields

This paper introduces an open source computer code to perform an integrated probabilistic spatio-temporal volcanic hazard assessment in distributed volcanic fields. The program, named MatHaz, is a set of Matla...

Authors: Daniel Bertin, Jan M. Lindsay, Laura Becerril, Shane J. Cronin and Lizette J. Bertin

Challenges of determining frequency and magnitudes of explosive eruptions even with an unprecedented stratigraphy

Through decades of field studies and laboratory analyses, Volcán de Colima, Mexico has one of the best known proximal eruption stratigraphies of any volcano, yet the frequency and magnitudes of previous erupti...

Authors: Julia M. Crummy, Ivan P. Savov, Susan C. Loughlin, Charles B. Connor, Laura Connor and Carlos Navarro-Ochoa

Volcano observatory best practices (VOBP) workshops - a summary of findings and best-practice recommendations

We summarize major findings and best-practice recommendations from three Volcano Observatory Best Practices (VOBP) workshops, which were held in 2011, 2013 and 2016. The workshops brought together representati...

Authors: John Pallister, Paolo Papale, John Eichelberger, Chris Newhall, Charles Mandeville, Setsuya Nakada, Warner Marzocchi, Susan Loughlin, Gill Jolly, John Ewert and Jacopo Selva

A step-by-step evaluation of empirical methods to quantify eruption source parameters from tephra-fall deposits

This paper describes the step-by-step process of characterizing tephra-fall deposits based on isopach, isomass and isopleth maps as well as thickness transects at different distances from their source. It cove...

Authors: Sébastien Biass, Costanza Bonadonna and Bruce F. Houghton

Revisiting the lacquer peels method with pyroclastic deposits: sediment plates, a precise, fine scale imaging method and powerful outreach tool

Pyroclastic sedimentary successions record an eruptive history modulated by transport and depositional phases. Here, a field technique of outcrop impregnation was used to document pyroclastic sediments at the ...

Authors: Guilhem Amin Douillet, Ulrich Kueppers, Célia Mato, Quentin Chaffaut, Mélanie Bouysson, Renate Reschetizka, Inga Hoelscher, Patrick Witting, Kai-Uwe Hess, Alexander Cerwenka, Donald B Dingwell and Benjamin Bernard

Hazard communication by volcanologists: part 2 - quality standards for volcanic hazard assessments

Contextualisation is the critical process of interactions between volcanologists and risk governance decision-makers and specifically the tailoring of hazard assessments to ensure they are driven by the needs ...

Authors: Richard J. Bretton, Joachim Gottsmann and Ryerson Christie

Hazard communication by volcanologists: Part 1 - Framing the case for contextualisation and related quality standards in volcanic hazard assessments

Scientific communication is one of the most challenging aspects of volcanic risk management because the complexities and uncertainties of volcanic unrest make it difficult for scientists to provide information...

Authors: Richard J. Bretton, Joachim Gottsmann and Ryerson Christie

The 1831 eruption of Babuyan Claro that never happened: has the source of one of the largest volcanic climate forcing events of the nineteenth century been misattributed?

The 1831 eruption of Babuyan Claro in the Philippines is regarded as one of the most significant volcanic climate forcing events of the nineteenth century. Modern databases have assigned the eruption a VEI of ...

Authors: Christopher S. Garrison, Christopher R. J. Kilburn and Stephen J. Edwards

Evaluating life-safety risk for fieldwork on active volcanoes: the volcano life risk estimator (VoLREst), a volcano observatory’s decision-support tool

When is it safe, or at least, not unreasonably risky, to undertake fieldwork on active volcanoes? Volcano observatories must balance the safety of staff against the value of collecting field data and/or manual...

Authors: Natalia Irma Deligne, Gill E. Jolly, Tony Taig and Terry H. Webb

Correction to: Newspaper reporting of the April 2007 eruption of Piton de la Fournaise part 1: useful information or tabloid sensationalism?

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Authors: Andrew J. L. Harris and Nicolas Villeneuve

Towards coordinated regional multi-satellite InSAR volcano observations: results from the Latin America pilot project

Within Latin America, about 319 volcanoes have been active in the Holocene, but 202 of these volcanoes have no seismic, deformation or gas monitoring. Following the 2012 Santorini Report on satellite Earth Obs...

Authors: M. E. Pritchard, J. Biggs, C. Wauthier, E. Sansosti, D. W. D. Arnold, F. Delgado, S. K. Ebmeier, S. T. Henderson, K. Stephens, C. Cooper, K. Wnuk, F. Amelung, V. Aguilar, P. Mothes, O. Macedo, L. E. Lara…

Newspaper reporting of the April 2007 eruption of Piton de la Fournaise part 1: useful information or tabloid sensationalism?

During March, April and May 2007 the local newspaper for the island of La Réunion, “Le Journal de L’Ile de La Réunion” (JIR), published 427 articles relating to natural hazards, with hazard-related articles oc...

Authors: Andrew J. L. Harris and Nicolas Villeneuve

Newspaper reporting of the April 2007 eruption of Piton de la Fournaise, part 2: framing the hazard

An analysis of the front pages of 120 consecutive editions of the local newspaper for the island of La Réunion (France), “Le Journal de L’Ile de La Réunion”, published before, during and after the April 2007 e...

Authors: Andrew J. L. Harris and Nicolas Villeneuve

Synthesis of global satellite observations of magmatic and volcanic deformation: implications for volcano monitoring & the lateral extent of magmatic domains

Global Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) measurements made over the past decades provide insights into the lateral extent of magmatic domains, and capture volcanic process on scales useful for volcano monitoring....

Authors: S. K. Ebmeier, B. J. Andrews, M. C. Araya, D. W. D. Arnold, J. Biggs, C. Cooper, E. Cottrell, M. Furtney, J. Hickey, J. Jay, R. Lloyd, A. L. Parker, M. E. Pritchard, E. Robertson, E. Venzke and J. L. Williamson

Regional and global under-recording of large explosive eruptions in the last 1000 years

Recording probabilities for large-magnitude (M≥4) explosive eruptions are assessed regionally over the last 1000 years, using the LaMEVE database. Although the uncertainty is large, due to the scarcity of large e...

Authors: Jonathan Rougier, R. Stephen J. Sparks and Katharine V. Cashman

Evaluating the impacts of volcanic eruptions using RiskScape

RiskScape is a free multi-hazard risk assessment software programme jointly developed by GNS Science and the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA) in New Zealand. RiskScape has a modular ...

Authors: Natalia I. Deligne, Nick Horspool, Silvia Canessa, Iain Matcham, George T. Williams, Grant Wilson and Thomas M. Wilson

Lava flow hazard prediction and monitoring with UAS: a case study from the 2014–2015 Pāhoa lava flow crisis, Hawai‘i

Accurately predicting lava flow path behavior is critical for active crisis management operations. The advance and emplacement of pāhoehoe flows modifies and inverts pre-existing topography, prompting the need...

Authors: Nicolas R. Turner, Ryan L. Perroy and Ken Hon

Improving volcanic ash fragility functions through laboratory studies: example of surface transportation networks

Surface transportation networks are critical infrastructure that are frequently affected by volcanic ash fall. Disruption to surface transportation from volcanic ash is often complex with the severity of impac...

Authors: Daniel Mark Blake, Natalia Irma Deligne, Thomas McDonald Wilson and Grant Wilson

Volcanic fatalities database: analysis of volcanic threat with distance and victim classification

Volcanoes can produce far-reaching hazards that extend distances of tens or hundreds of kilometres in large eruptions, or in certain conditions for smaller eruptions. About a tenth of the world’s population li...

Authors: Sarah K. Brown, Susanna F. Jenkins, R. Stephen J. Sparks, Henry Odbert and Melanie R. Auker

Framework for developing volcanic fragility and vulnerability functions for critical infrastructure

Volcanic risk assessment using probabilistic models is increasingly desired for risk management, particularly for loss forecasting, critical infrastructure management, land-use planning and evacuation planning...

Authors: Grant Wilson, Thomas M. Wilson, Natalia I. Deligne, Daniel M. Blake and Jim W. Cole

Rational volcanic hazard forecasts and the use of volcanic alert levels

Volcanologists make hazard forecasts in order to contribute to volcanic risk assessments and decision-making, in areas where volcanic phenomena have the potential to impact societal assets. Present-day forecas...

Authors: Paolo Papale

The iron-catalysed surface reactivity and health-pertinent physical characteristics of explosive volcanic ash from Mt. Etna, Italy

Mount Etna is Europe’s largest and most active volcano. In recent years, it has displayed enhanced explosive activity, causing concern amongst local inhabitants who frequently have to live with, and clean up, ...

Authors: C. J. Horwell, P. Sargent, D. Andronico, M. D. Lo Castro, M. Tomatis, S. E. Hillman, S. A. K. Michnowicz and B. Fubini

Effusive crises at Piton de la Fournaise 2014–2015: a review of a multi-national response model

Many active European volcanoes and volcano observatories are island-based and located far from their administrative “mainland”. Consequently, Governments have developed multisite approaches, in which monitorin...

Authors: A. J. L. Harris, N. Villeneuve, A. Di Muro, V. Ferrazzini, A. Peltier, D. Coppola, M. Favalli, P. Bachèlery, J.-L. Froger, L. Gurioli, S. Moune, I. Vlastélic, B. Galle and S. Arellano

Preservation of thin tephra

The preservation of thin (<300 mm thick) tephra falls was investigated at four sites in Papua New Guinea (PNG), Alaska and Washington, USA. Measurements of the variations in the thickness of: (i) Tibito Tephra...

Authors: Russell Blong, Neal Enright and Paul Grasso

Benchmarking computational fluid dynamics models of lava flow simulation for hazard assessment, forecasting, and risk management

Numerical simulations of lava flow emplacement are valuable for assessing lava flow hazards, forecasting active flows, designing flow mitigation measures, interpreting past eruptions, and understanding the con...

Authors: Hannah R. Dietterich, Einat Lev, Jiangzhi Chen, Jacob A. Richardson and Katharine V. Cashman

Probabilistic hazard modelling of rain-triggered lahars

Probabilistic quantification of lahar hazard is an important component of lahar risk assessment and mitigation. Here we propose a new approach to probabilistic lahar hazard assessment through coupling a lahar ...

Authors: Stuart R. Mead and Christina R. Magill

Report on potential sampling biases in the LaMEVE database of global volcanism

We investigate whether the disproportionate contribution of individual volcanoes in the Large Magnitude Explosive Volcanic Eruption database (LaMEVE) potentially compromises the treatment of LaMEVE as a global...

Authors: Natalia Irma Deligne, R. Stephen J. Sparks and Sarah K. Brown

Damage from lava flows: insights from the 2014–2015 eruption of Fogo, Cape Verde

Fast-moving lava flows during the 2014–2015 eruption of Fogo volcano in Cape Verde engulfed 75% (n = 260) of buildings within three villages in the Chã das Caldeiras area, as well as 25% of cultivable agricultura...

Authors: S. F. Jenkins, S. J. Day, B. V. E. Faria and J. F. B. D. Fonseca

Forecasting volcanic ash deposition using HYSPLIT

A major source of error in forecasting where airborne volcanic ash will travel and land is the wind pattern above and around the volcano. GNS Science, in conjunction with MetService, is seeking to move its rou...

Authors: Tony Hurst and Cory Davis

Phreatic eruptions at crater lakes: occurrence statistics and probabilistic hazard forecast

Phreatic eruptions, although posing a serious threat to people in crater proximity, are often underestimated and have been comparatively understudied. The detailed eruption catalogue for Ruapehu Volcano (New Z...

Authors: Karen Strehlow, Laura Sandri, Joachim H. Gottsmann, Geoff Kilgour, Alison C. Rust and Roberto Tonini

Household preparedness motivation in lahar hazard zones: assessing the adoption of preparedness behaviors among laypeople and response professionals in communities downstream from Mount Baker and Glacier Peak (USA) volcanoes

As the number of people living at risk from volcanic hazards in the U.S. Pacific Northwest grows, more detailed studies of household preparedness in at-risk communities are needed to develop effective mitigati...

Authors: Kimberley A. Corwin, Brittany D. Brand, Monica L. Hubbard and David M. Johnston

Estimating building vulnerability to volcanic ash fall for insurance and other purposes

Volcanic ash falls are one of the most widespread and frequent volcanic hazards, and are produced by all explosive volcanic eruptions. Ash falls are arguably the most disruptive volcanic hazard because of thei...

Authors: R. J. Blong, P. Grasso, S. F. Jenkins, C. R. Magill, T. M. Wilson, K. McMullan and J. Kandlbauer

A model to assess tephra clean-up requirements in urban environments

Tephra falls can cause a range of impacts to communities by disrupting, contaminating and damaging buildings and infrastructure systems, as well as posing a potential health hazard. Coordinated clean-up operat...

Authors: Josh Hayes, Thomas M. Wilson, Natalia I. Deligne, Jim Cole and Matthew Hughes

Global recording rates for large eruptions

A non-parametric statistical approach is used to assess the global recording rate for large (M4+) stratovolcano eruptions in a modern database, LaMEVE (v3.1). This approach imposes minimal structure on the sha...

Authors: Jonathan Rougier, Stephen R. Sparks and Katharine V. Cashman

TephraProb: a Matlab package for probabilistic hazard assessments of tephra fallout

TephraProb is a toolbox of Matlab functions designed to produce scenario–based probabilistic hazard assessments for ground tephra accumulation based on the Tephra2 model. The toolbox incl...

Authors: Sébastien Biass, Costanza Bonadonna, Laura Connor and Charles Connor

Application of tephra volume models to ejecta volumes from subsurface explosion experiments

Deposit volume is a critical factor for reconstructing an explosive eruption. Volume estimate models typically used for large Plinian deposits have been adapted and improved repeatedly over the last few decade...

Authors: A. H. Graettinger

Mapping and measuring lava volumes from 2002 to 2009 at El Reventador Volcano, Ecuador, from field measurements and satellite remote sensing

Estimates of lava volume, and thus effusion rate, are critical for assessing volcanic hazard and are a priority for volcano observatories with responsibility for monitoring. The choice of specific methods used...

Authors: M. Fernanda Naranjo, Susanna K. Ebmeier, Silvia Vallejo, Patricio Ramón, Patricia Mothes, Juliet Biggs and Francisco Herrera

Impacts to agriculture and critical infrastructure in Argentina after ashfall from the 2011 eruption of the Cordón Caulle volcanic complex: an assessment of published damage and function thresholds

The 2011 Cordón Caulle (Chile) was a large silicic eruption that dispersed ashfall over 75,000 km² of land in Central Argentina, affecting large parts of the Neuquén, Río Negro, and Chubut provinces, including th...

Authors: Heather Craig, Thomas Wilson, Carol Stewart, Valeria Outes, Gustavo Villarosa and Peter Baxter

Automated tracking of lava lake level using thermal images at Kīlauea Volcano, Hawai’i

Tracking the level of the lava lake in Halema‘uma‘u Crater, at the summit of Kīlauea Volcano, Hawai’i, is an essential part of monitoring the ongoing eruption and forecasting potentially hazardous changes in a...

Authors: Matthew R. Patrick, Donald Swanson and Tim Orr

Effects of eruption source parameter variation and meteorological dataset on tephra fallout hazard assessment: example from Vesuvius (Italy)

In this study, using the tephra dispersal model HAZMAP, we investigate the effect of using different meteorological datasets and eruption source parameters on tephra fallout hazard assessment for a sub-Plinian...

Authors: Giovanni Macedonio, Antonio Costa, Simona Scollo and Augusto Neri

Probabilistic Volcanic Ash Hazard Analysis (PVAHA) II: assessment of the Asia-Pacific region using VAPAH

Volcanic ash is an increasingly common, long-range hazard, impacting on our globalised society. The Asia-Pacific region is rapidly developing as a major contributor to the global population and economy and is ...

Authors: V. Miller, A. N. Bear-Crozier, V. Newey, N. Horspool and R. Weber

Probabilistic Volcanic Ash Hazard Analysis (PVAHA) I: development of the VAPAH tool for emulating multi-scale volcanic ash fall analysis

Significant advances have been made in recent years in probabilistic analysis of geological hazards. Analyses of this kind are concerned with producing estimates of the probability of occurrence of a hazard at...

Authors: A. N. Bear-Crozier, V. Miller, V. Newey, N. Horspool and R. Weber

Influence of volcanic tephra on photovoltaic (PV)-modules: an experimental study with application to the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption, Iceland

Large volcanic eruptions may lead to significant tephra dispersion, crossing borders and affecting distant and industrial societies in various ways. While the effects of volcanic ash clouds on the aviation ind...

Authors: Edgar Zorn and Thomas R. Walter

Gaet’ale- a reactivated thermal spring and potential tourist hazard in the Asale salt flats, Danakil Depression, Ethiopia

This paper serves to document a thermal spring, called Gaet’ale, that was reactivated in 2005, during the majorseismo-volcanic crisis in the Danakil Depression of the Afar region of northern Ethiopia. Many dea...

Authors: Sharad Master

Sensitivity to volcanic field boundary

Volcanic hazard analyses are desirable where there is potential for future volcanic activity to affect a proximal population. This is frequently the case for volcanic fields (regions of distributed volcanism) ...

Authors: Melody G. Runge, Mark S. Bebbington, Shane J. Cronin, Jan M. Lindsay and Mohammed Rashad Moufti

Erratum to: Fearing the knock on the door: critical security studies insights into limited cooperation with disaster management regimes

Authors: Ryerson Christie, Olivia Cooke and Joachim Gottsmann

Using infrasound to constrain ash plume rise

Airborne volcanic ash advisories are currently based on analyses of satellite imagery with relatively low temporal resolution, and numerical simulations of atmospheric plume dispersion. These simulations rely ...

Authors: Oliver D. Lamb, Silvio De Angelis and Yan Lavallée

Fearing the knock on the door: critical security studies insights into limited cooperation with disaster management regimes

In seeking to provide for the safety of local communities in the global south, there has been an apparent policy focus on making early warning systems more robust, and improving the operation of disaster manag...

Authors: Ryerson Christie, Olivia Cooke and Joachim Gottsmann

Implications of legal scrutiny processes (including the L’Aquila trial and other recent court cases) for future volcanic risk governance

Discourse about the L’Aquila trial in Italy has overlooked the many different roles that laws play within risk governance. For volcanic risk governance, laws not only create the duty holders, beneficiaries and...

Authors: Richard J Bretton, Joachim Gottsmann, Willy P Aspinall and Ryerson Christie

How many explosive eruptions are missing from the geologic record? Analysis of the quaternary record of large magnitude explosive eruptions in Japan

Large magnitude explosive eruptions in Japan were compiled for the Large Magnitude Explosive Volcanic Eruptions (LaMEVE) database. Here we use this dataset to investigate the under-recording of Japanese explos...

Authors: Koji Kiyosugi, Charles Connor, Robert Stephen John Sparks, Helen Sian Crosweller, Sarah Krystyna Brown, Lee Siebert, Ting Wang and Shinji Takarada