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Table 3 Volcanological inputs for a ‘most likely’ long-duration ash emission with assumed event mass and duration (and thus mass flux) given two scenario cases: ‘Strong’ assumes that the Sparks et al. (1997) empirical relationship between plume height and mass flux is valid (i.e. the plume is not strongly affected by wind), while ‘Weak’ considers that the plume is affected by wind and follows the relationship of Woodhouse et al. (2013)

From: Rapid emergency assessment of ash and gas hazard for future eruptions at Santorini Volcano, Greece

Height (km) Number of events Poisson rate parameter Event ash mass (x106 kg) Duration (mins) Particle size (phi)
Strong Weak Strong Weak
Total eruption duration: 2 years
3 5 0.007 6 60 10 10 Range: −3.32 to 6.64
2 20 2.74 × 10−2 1.8 30 15 15 Median: 1.66
1 75 0.103 1.1 5.4 120 60 Standard deviation: 2
0.5 400 0.548 0.2 1.1 360 180
Scenario variants to investigate the effect of ash aggregation
Particle size is modified to favour larger particles. Range: −3.32 to 3.32
All parameters as for the base Santorini ‘Weak’ and ‘Strong’ scenarios. Median: 0.00
  Standard deviation: 2
Scenario variants to investigate the effect of event clustering
Total eruption duration: 1 year
3 5 0.014 Increased Poisson rate parameter simulates shorter inter-event times.
2 20 5.48 x 10−2
1 75 0.205 All other parameters as for the base Santorini ‘Weak’ and ‘Strong’ scenarios.
0.5 400 1.096
  1. Duration refers to individual events, rather than the total eruption duration, and relates to the event ash mass and calculated mass flux. Further variants build upon these base scenarios to investigate the influence of aggregation and event clustering on simulated hazard