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Table 8 Summary of the key impacts and associated cascading effects for a future unrest scenario at Campi Flegrei, assuming the hazards causing these impacts are volcanic seismicity and ground deformation. Impact zones are defined as areas exposed to unrest hazards in scenario and not the whole evacuation area

From: Volcanic unrest scenarios and impact assessment at Campi Flegrei caldera, Southern Italy

Type of impact Estimated level of impact Cascading effects
Building damage 1766–2995 buildings within unrest impact zones - Homes unable to be occupied.
- Repair or demolition costs.
- Businesses unable to operate.
- Fall in property values.
- Increasing insurance premiums.
Road and rail network damage 59–200 km of Roads within unrest impact zones - Reduced access for repairing infrastructure.
- Business and critical facility supply disruption.
- Disruption to evacuation procedures.
- Worker commute disruption.
- Reduction in access for tourists.
Damage to electricity network 7–17 km of high voltage electricity network within unrest impact zones - Business and critical facility supply disruption.
- Disruption to road signals and transport.
- Telecommunication disruption.
- Residential supply disruption.
Evacuations 31,000–136,000 residents within primary evacuation areas. - Psychological stress and illness
- Displaced population.
- Loss of business revenue in evacuation areas.
- Reduction in tourism.