Fig. 4
From: Probabilistic volcanic hazard assessment at an active but under-monitored volcano: Ceboruco, Mexico
The absolute annual probability maps for a tephra fallout and b lahars. Ceboruco’s flanks and immediate surroundings have a higher probability of being inundated by a lahar, whereas the areas downstream the Ahuacatlán river show a lower probability. This is assumed to be due to the loss of particles as sedimentation occurs within a lahar and captured in the simulations. Tephra fallout maps rely heavily on the numerical simulations and prior models show that the expected areal distribution of tephra is controlled by the prevailing winds at tropopause levels for a large eruption and by the smaller variable wind fields at lower altitudes for smaller events