Table 2 Results of sensitivity tests on two-reservoir and three-reservoir model options and weightings
BN probability of Aso-4 scale eruption in next 100 years | |||
|---|---|---|---|
Sensitivity tests for 2-reservoir model weightings | Mean probability | Stdev | 95th percentile |
Basis model (International group) | 2.8 × 10–9 | ± 6.7 × 10–9 | 1.9 × 10–8 |
WR2 high weight proxy conditioned exclusively on weights [75‥85%] | 9.6 × 10–10 | ± 3.5 × 10–9 | 1.4 × 10–8 |
WR2 low weight proxy conditioned exclusively on weights [20‥30%] | 3.3 × 10–9 | ± 8.6 × 10–9 | 2.5 × 10–8 |
95% + confidence for weighted 3-reservoir model | 5.8 × 10–9 | ± 1.1 × 10–9 | 2.9 × 10–8 |
3-reservoir model selected exclusively | 6.2 × 10–8 | ± 1.8 × 10–7 | 5.7 × 10–7 |