Table 1 An overview of eruptions relevant to this study. Top: summary of previous studies that give eruption timescales since Fuego’s reactivation in 1999. Bolded text refers to precursory activity; text in parentheses indicates the activity the timescale relates to. Middle: paroxysms since 1999 associated with widespread evacuations. Bottom: eruptions described in this study include five paroxysms and one effusive eruption

Period

Timescale

Description

Reference

Jan – Aug 2002

7.5 months (eruption)

Arrival of magma at surface; elevated Strombolian activity; lava flow effusion; Vulcanian activity; declining activity

Rodríguez et al. (2004)

Aug 2005 – Jun 2007

24–48 hours (paroxysm)

Gas chugging evolving into continuous explosions; precursory lava effusion lasting until end of paroxysm; climax with sustained fire fountain and lava flows; declining activity

Lyons et al. (2010)

Mar 2014 – Oct 2015

Up to 48 hours

Precursory increase in RSAM; paroxysms coincident with start of lava effusion and characterised by Strombolian explosions.

Castro-Escobar (2017)

Jan 2015 – Jun 2018

24–48 hours (climax)

Precursory lava effusion, increasing RSAM, and accelerating explosions; climax; declining activity

Aldeghi and Escobar-Wolf (2019);

Naismith et al. (2019)

3^rd June 2018

16.5 hours (eruption); 2.5 hours (climax)

Rapidly accelerating explosive activity and PDC generation; climax with tall ash plume and series of PDCs; decline in activity

IB #033–2018; Pardini et al. (2019)

23^rd – 24^th Sep 2021, 7^th – 8^th Mar 2022

32–48 hours

Precursory lava effusion and increasing seismicity; climax with sustained lava effusion and PDCs; decline in activity

GVP, (2023)

Description

References

Evacuation of 5–10,000 people from SW flanks of Fuego, led by OVFGO observers from Panimaché Uno

Cruz Roja (2012); Herrick (2012); INSIVUMEH (2012); this study

Preventative evacuation of La Reunión golf resort; evacuation of communities around Fuego after PDCs descend on Los Lotes

CONRED (2018a); Ferrés and Escobar-Wolf (2018)

Evacuation of several communities (including Panimaché Uno) coordinated by CONRED and emergency services

GVP, (2023); this study

Government-supported evacuation of 522 residents from three communities (Morelia, Panimaché Dos, Panimaché Uno)

Bartel and Naismith (2023); GVP, (2023)

Evacuation of ~ 1200 residents from six communities W/SW of Fuego

France24 (2023); GVP, (2023)