Articles

Implications of legal scrutiny processes (including the L’Aquila trial and other recent court cases) for future volcanic risk governance

Discourse about the L’Aquila trial in Italy has overlooked the many different roles that laws play within risk governance. For volcanic risk governance, laws not only create the duty holders, beneficiaries and...

Authors: Richard J Bretton, Joachim Gottsmann, Willy P Aspinall and Ryerson Christie

How many explosive eruptions are missing from the geologic record? Analysis of the quaternary record of large magnitude explosive eruptions in Japan

Large magnitude explosive eruptions in Japan were compiled for the Large Magnitude Explosive Volcanic Eruptions (LaMEVE) database. Here we use this dataset to investigate the under-recording of Japanese explos...

Authors: Koji Kiyosugi, Charles Connor, Robert Stephen John Sparks, Helen Sian Crosweller, Sarah Krystyna Brown, Lee Siebert, Ting Wang and Shinji Takarada

Rapid emergency assessment of ash and gas hazard for future eruptions at Santorini Volcano, Greece

Hazard assessments for long-dormant volcanoes, where information is rarely available, typically have to be made rapidly and in the face of considerable uncertainty and often poor information. A conditional (as...

Authors: S F Jenkins, S Barsotti, T K Hincks, A Neri, J C Phillips, R S J Sparks, T Sheldrake and G Vougioukalakis

Ash fall impact on vegetation: a remote sensing approach of the Oldoinyo Lengai 2007–08 eruption

Impacts from ash fallout on the environment can be widespread and long lasting, even from moderate-size eruptions. Assessing ash impact on vegetation and the indirect impacts for people is often difficult in t...

Authors: Ann De Schutter, Matthieu Kervyn, Frank Canters, Sonja A Bosshard-Stadlin, Majura A M Songo and Hannes B Mattsson

Disaster risk reduction and resettlement efforts at San Vicente (Chichontepec) Volcano, El Salvador: toward understanding social and geophysical vulnerability

Despite a long history of volcanic debris flows on the northern flank of San Vicente Volcano, El Salvador, authorities and communities were ill-prepared for the lahars that occurred on Nov. 7–8, 2009. More tha...

Authors: Luke J Bowman and Kari B Henquinet

Legal framework and scientific responsibilities during volcanic crises: the case of the El Hierro eruption (2011–2014)

In recent years concerns have been growing in the scientific community over the definition of scientific responsibilities during emergencies, and the legal status of scientists involved in the corresponding de...

Authors: José M Marrero, Alicia García, Ángeles Llinares, Manuel Berrocoso and Ramón Ortiz

Training in crisis communication and volcanic eruption forecasting: design and evaluation of an authentic role-play simulation

We present an interactive, immersive, authentic role-play simulation designed to teach tertiary geoscience students in New Zealand to forecast and mitigate a volcanic crisis. Half of the participating group (i...

Authors: Jacqueline Dohaney, Erik Brogt, Ben Kennedy, Thomas M Wilson and Jan M Lindsay

Using near-real-time monitoring data from Pu‘u ‘Ō‘ō vent at Kīlauea Volcano for training and educational purposes

Training non-scientists in the use of volcano-monitoring data is critical preparation in advance of a volcanic crisis, but it is currently unclear which methods are most effective for improving the content-kno...

Authors: Rachel Teasdale, Katrien van der Hoeven Kraft and Michael P Poland

Trajectories of social vulnerability during the Soufrière Hills volcanic crisis

When some active volcanoes enter into an eruptive phase, they generate a succession of hazard events manifested over a multi-year period of time. Under such conditions of prolonged risk, understanding what mak...

Authors: Anna Hicks and Roger Few

The scientific–community interface over the fifteen-year eruptive episode of Tungurahua Volcano, Ecuador

The successful handling of Tungurahua’s frequent eruptions during 15 years via permanent instrumental monitoring and good community relations by the Instituto Geofísico of the Escuela Politécnica Nacional (IGE...

Authors: Patricia A Mothes, Hugo A Yepes, Minard L Hall, Patricio A Ramón, Alexander L Steele and Mario C Ruiz

‘Is Ash Falling?’, an online ashfall reporting tool in support of improved ashfall warnings and investigations of ashfall processes

The primary volcano hazard in Alaska is airborne ash, which endangers aircraft flying the busy North Pacific air routes and consequently affects global commerce. Downwind ashfall is also a significant threat t...

Authors: Kristi Wallace, Seth Snedigar and Cheryl Cameron

The genesis of volcanic risk assessment for the Auckland engineering lifelines project: 1996–2000

The Auckland Engineering Lifelines Project (A.E.L.P.) was initiated by the Auckland Regional Council, New Zealand, in 1996 to reduce the damage to and downtime of utilities such as water, wastewater, gas, powe...

Authors: Michele Daly and David Johnston

The influence of probabilistic volcanic hazard map properties on hazard communication

Probabilistic volcanic hazard analysis is becoming an increasingly popular component of volcanic risk reduction strategies worldwide. While probabilistic hazard analyses offer many advantages for decision-maki...

Authors: Mary Anne Thompson, Jan M Lindsay and JC Gaillard

Bridging Māori indigenous knowledge and western geosciences to reduce social vulnerability in active volcanic regions

A new pedagogical methodology is proposed to reduce the social vulnerability of indigenous communities occupying areas subject to volcanic activity, as a potential interactive approach between those communitie...

Authors: Natalia Pardo, Hildalene Wilson, Jonathan N Procter, Erica Lattughi and Taiarahia Black

Variations in community exposure to lahar hazards from multiple volcanoes in Washington State (USA)

Understanding how communities are vulnerable to lahar hazards provides critical input for effective design and implementation of volcano hazard preparedness and mitigation strategies. Past vulnerability assess...

Authors: Angela K Diefenbach, Nathan J Wood and John W Ewert

Beyond the volcanic crisis: co-governance of risk in Montserrat

Disaster risk governance is concerned with how institutions change in response to perturbations or, conversely, are able to remain static for long periods of time. In Montserrat, the volcanic eruption in 1995 ...

Authors: Emily Wilkinson

Improvements of volcanic ash fall forecasts issued by the Japan Meteorological Agency

Since March 2008, the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) has operated a Volcanic Ash Fall Forecast (VAFF) system to issue forecasts of areas in Japan where ash falls are expected following volcanic eruptions. T...

Authors: Yoshihiko Hasegawa, Akira Sugai, Yosuke Hayashi, Yuta Hayashi, Shoji Saito and Toshiki Shimbori

Enhancing scientific response in a crisis: evidence-based approaches from emergency management in New Zealand

Contemporary approaches to multi-organisational response planning for the management of complex volcanic crises assume that identifying the types of expertise needed provides the foundation for effective respo...

Authors: Emma E H Doyle, Douglas Paton and David M Johnston

Recognizing and tracking volcanic hazards related to non-magmatic unrest: a review

Eruption forecasting is a major goal in volcanology. Logically, but unfortunately, forecasting hazards related to non-magmatic unrest is too often overshadowed by eruption forecasting, although many volcanoes ...

Authors: Dmitri Rouwet, Laura Sandri, Warner Marzocchi, Joachim Gottsmann, Jacopo Selva, Roberto Tonini and Paolo Papale

Reducing risk from lahar hazards: concepts, case studies, and roles for scientists

Lahars are rapid flows of mud–rock slurries that can occur without warning and catastrophically impact areas more than 100 km downstream of source volcanoes. Strategies to mitigate the potential for damage or ...

Authors: Thomas C Pierson, Nathan J Wood and Carolyn L Driedger

Scientists’ views about lay perceptions of volcanic hazard and risk

We present data from a survey of scientists from volcano observatories and monitoring institutions around the world. The scientists were asked about the hazards from the volcanoes that they work on, their perc...

Authors: Amy Donovan, J Richard Eiser and R Stephen J Sparks

An analysis of the issuance of volcanic alert levels during volcanic crises

Volcano Alert Levels (VALs) are used by volcanologists to quickly and simply inform local populations and government authorities of the level of volcanic unrest and eruption likelihood. Most VALs do not explic...

Authors: Annie E G Winson, Fidel Costa, Christopher G Newhall and Gordon Woo

Communicating the status of volcanic activity: revising New Zealand’s volcanic alert level system

The communication of scientific information to stakeholders is a critical component of an effective Volcano Early Warning System. Volcanic Alert Level (VAL) systems are used in many countries as a tool within ...

Authors: Sally H Potter, Gill E Jolly, Vincent E Neall, David M Johnston and Bradley J Scott

Santorini unrest 2011–2012: an immediate Bayesian belief network analysis of eruption scenario probabilities for urgent decision support under uncertainty

Unrest at the Greek volcanic island of Santorini in 2011–2012 was a cause for unease for some governments, concerned about risks to their nationals on this popular holiday island if an eruption took place. In ...

Authors: Willy P Aspinall and Gordon Woo

Risk reduction through community-based monitoring: the vigías of Tungurahua, Ecuador

Since 2000, a network of volunteers known as vigías has been engaged in community-based volcano monitoring, which involves local citizens in the collection of scientific data, around volcán Tungurahua, Ecuador. T...

Authors: Jonathan Stone, Jenni Barclay, Peter Simmons, Paul D Cole, Susan C Loughlin, Patricio Ramón and Patricia Mothes

Volcanic ashfall preparedness poster series: a collaborative process for reducing the vulnerability of critical infrastructure

Volcanic ashfall can be damaging and disruptive to critical infrastructure including electricity generation, transmission and distribution networks, drinking-water and wastewater treatment plants, roads, airpo...

Authors: Thomas M Wilson, Carol Stewart, Johnny B Wardman, Grant Wilson, David M Johnston, Daniel Hill, Samuel J Hampton, Marlene Villemure, Sara McBride, Graham Leonard, Michele Daly, Natalia Deligne and Lisa Roberts

Perception of a chronic volcanic hazard: persistent degassing at Masaya volcano, Nicaragua

This study takes a combined qualitative and quantitative approach to examining the chronic hazard posed by persistent degassing at Masaya volcano, Nicaragua. The gas is a highly salient threat in communities s...

Authors: Saskia M van Manen

AshCalc–a new tool for the comparison of the exponential, power-law and Weibull models of tephra deposition

This paper presents a new tool, AshCalc, for the comparison of the three most commonly used models for the calculation of the bulk volume of volcanic tephra fall deposits: the exponential model, the power law ...

Authors: Matthew L Daggitt, Tamsin A Mather, David M Pyle and Stephen Page

Evacuation planning in the Auckland Volcanic Field, New Zealand: a spatio-temporal approach for emergency management and transportation network decisions

Auckland is the largest city in New Zealand (pop. 1.5 million) and is situated atop an active monogenetic volcanic field. When volcanic activity next occurs, the most effective means of protecting the people w...

Authors: Erik Tomsen, Jan M Lindsay, Mark Gahegan, Thomas M Wilson and Daniel M Blake

The thermal stability of Eyjafjallajökull ash versus turbine ingestion test sands

The 2010 eruption of Eyjafjallajökull (Iceland) and the 2011 eruptions of Grimsvötn (Iceland), Cordon Caulle (Chile) and Nabro (Ethiopia) have drastically heightened the level of awareness in the general popul...

Authors: Ulrich Kueppers, Corrado Cimarelli, Kai-Uwe Hess, Jacopo Taddeucci, Fabian B Wadsworth and Donald B Dingwell

Characterisation of the Quaternary eruption record: analysis of the Large Magnitude Explosive Volcanic Eruptions (LaMEVE) database

The Large Magnitude Explosive Volcanic Eruptions (LaMEVE) database contains data on 1,883 Quaternary eruption records of magnitude (M) 4 and above and is publically accessible online via the British Geological...

Authors: Sarah Krystyna Brown, Helen Sian Crosweller, Robert Stephen John Sparks, Elizabeth Cottrell, Natalia Irma Deligne, Natalie Ortiz Guerrero, Laura Hobbs, Koji Kiyosugi, Susan Clare Loughlin, Lee Siebert and Shinji Takarada

Retrospective analysis of uncertain eruption precursors at La Soufrière volcano, Guadeloupe, 1975–77: volcanic hazard assessment using a Bayesian Belief Network approach

Scientists monitoring active volcanoes are increasingly required to provide decision support to civil authorities during periods of unrest. As the extent and resolution of monitoring improves, the process of j...

Authors: Thea K Hincks, Jean-Christophe Komorowski, Stephen R Sparks and Willy P Aspinall

Vhub: a knowledge management system to facilitate online collaborative volcano modeling and research

Knowledge of volcanic systems and the hazards they produce is rapidly advancing as internet resources become more readily accessible, new and more sensitive field techniques are developed, and ever greater amo...

Authors: Jose L Palma, Leah Courtland, Sylvain Charbonnier, Riccardo Tortini and Greg A Valentine

Continuous monitoring of Hawaiian volcanoes with thermal cameras

Continuously operating thermal cameras are becoming more common around the world for volcano monitoring, and offer distinct advantages over conventional visual webcams for observing volcanic activity. Thermal ...

Authors: Matthew R Patrick, Tim Orr, Loren Antolik, Lopaka Lee and Kevan Kamibayashi

A science & arts sensitization program in Chapultenango, 25 years after the 1982 El Chichόn eruptions (Chiapas, Mexico)

Volcanic risk perception may drastically decrease after eruptions and during periods of volcanic quiescence. Despite the fact that the adults in Chapultenango, a Zoque indigenous community near El Chichόn volc...

Authors: Dmitri Rouwet, Marta Iorio and Demetrio Polgovsky

Quantifying uncertainties in the measurement of tephra fall thickness

The uncertainties associated with tephra thickness measurements are calculated and implications for volume estimates are presented. Statistical methods are used to analyse the large dataset of Walker and Croas...

Authors: SL Engwell, RSJ Sparks and WP Aspinall

The size range of bubbles that produce ash during explosive volcanic eruptions

Volcanic eruptions can produce ash particles with a range of sizes and morphologies. Here we morphologically distinguish two textural types: Simple (generally smaller) ash particles, where the observable surfa...

Authors: Kimberly Genareau, Gopal K Mulukutla, Alexander A Proussevitch, Adam J Durant, William I Rose and Dork L Sahagian

UK monitoring and deposition of tephra from the May 2011 eruption of Grímsvötn, Iceland

Mapping the transport and deposition of tephra is important for the assessment of an eruption’s impact on health, transport, vegetation and infrastructure, but it is challenging at large distances from a volca...

Authors: John Alexander Stevenson, Susan C Loughlin, Anna Font, Gary W Fuller, Alison MacLeod, Ian W Oliver, Ben Jackson, Claire J Horwell, Thor Thordarson and Ian Dawson

A statistical analysis of the global historical volcanic fatalities record

A new database of volcanic fatalities is presented and analysed, covering the period 1600 to 2010 AD. Data are from four sources: the Smithsonian Institution, Witham (2005), CRED EM-DAT and Munich RE. The data...

Authors: Melanie Rose Auker, Robert Stephen John Sparks, Lee Siebert, Helen Sian Crosweller and John Ewert

Homemade ashmeter: a low-cost, high-efficiency solution to improve tephra field-data collection for contemporary explosive eruptions

Tephra fall is a major volcanic hazard and deposit characteristics are critical data used to quantify eruptive material. The homemade ashmeter is a device used to precisely measure thickness, area density, and...

Authors: Benjamin Bernard

Operational eruption forecasting at high-risk volcanoes: the case of Campi Flegrei, Naples

High risk volcanic events are commonly preceded by long periods of unrest during which scientists are asked to provide near real-time forecasts. The rarity of such events, inaccessibility of the underground vo...

Authors: Jacopo Selva, Warner Marzocchi, Paolo Papale and Laura Sandri

Global database on large magnitude explosive volcanic eruptions (LaMEVE)

To facilitate the assessment of hazards and risk from volcanoes, we have created a comprehensive global database of Quaternary Large Magnitude Explosive Volcanic Eruptions (LaMEVE). This forms part of the larg...

Authors: Helen Sian Crosweller, Baneet Arora, Sarah Krystyna Brown, Elizabeth Cottrell, Natalia Irma Deligne, Natalie Ortiz Guerrero, Laura Hobbs, Koji Kiyosugi, Susan Clare Loughlin, Jonathan Lowndes, Martin Nayembil, Lee Siebert, Robert Stephen John Sparks, Shinji Takarada and Edward Venzke

Probabilistic approach to modeling lava flow inundation: a lava flow hazard assessment for a nuclear facility in Armenia

Probabilistic modeling of lava flow hazard is a two-stage process. The first step is an estimation of the possible locations of future eruptive vents followed by an estimation of probable areas of inundation b...

Authors: Laura J Connor, Charles B Connor, Khachatur Meliksetian and Ivan Savov

Short- and long-term evacuation of people and livestock during a volcanic crisis: lessons from the 1991 eruption of Volcán Hudson, Chile

Human and livestock evacuation during volcanic crises is an essential component of volcanic risk management. This study investigates the evacuation of human and livestock populations from areas impacted by ash...

Authors: Thomas Wilson, Jim Cole, David Johnston, Shane Cronin, Carol Stewart and Andre Dantas

The role of multidisciplinary research and collaboration for improving the resilience of communities to volcanic risk

Authors: Professor David Johnston